Poe and Hayes-Santos Remain Favorites to Win
Monday February 29, 2016 – Gainesville, FL — Meer Research in an effort to better understand the local political climate conducted on online panel of local political experts regarding the upcoming City of Gainesville elections.
In a panel conducted February 25th – February 26th 2016, political insiders agree that Lauren Poe and Adrian Hayes-Santos remain heavy favorites in the Gainesville City campaigns. 80% of the panel predicts a victory for Lauren Poe for Gainesville Mayor, and 100% of the panel predicts a victory for Adrian Hayes-Santos for Gainesville District 4.
The panel predicts Lauren Poe will garner just over the 50% required to avoid a run-off with a predicted vote percentage of 51%. District 4 is predicted to not be as close with Adrian Hayes-Santos predicted to garner 63% of the vote.
The panel participants are more confident in their predictions for District 4 with 80% of participants ‘extremely’ confident’ or ‘very confident’ in their projections compared to 7% ‘slightly confident’ or ‘not at all confident’.
This contrasts with their tempered confidence in their picks for Mayor with 33% of participants ‘extremely’ confident’ or ‘very confident in their predictions compared to 27 % are ‘slightly confident’ or ‘not at all confident’.
Political Insiders participating: Roger Austin, Susan Bottcher, Katy Burnett, Dean Cheshire, Garrett Garner-Wells, Thomas Hawkins, Brandon Kutner, Jeanna Mastrodicasa, Alex Patton, Dallas Rawlins, Winston Rushing, Remzey Samarrai, Nathan Skop, Matt Surrency, and Harvey Ward.
Political composition of this panel: 8 Democrats, 7 Republicans
About the Panel
Panel members are provided anonymity for their answers via Meer Research’s online panel software. Meer can observe if the participant completes the survey and participant’s names are released with each panel.
The Alachua Political Insiders panel is a non-probability panel with no statistical significance; however, panelists are recruited for their intimate knowledge of local politics.
Meer Research will continue to add to the Alachua County Political Insider Panel in order to create a diverse panel of political experts willing to share their opinions.
Participation in the Political Insider panel is by invitation only. If you would like to nominate someone as a political insider, please email: MeerResearch@MeerResearch.com.
Gainesville Mayor Race
Using all the information available to you, who do you predict will win the campaign for the Mayor of Gainesville?
At this time, how confident are you in your prediction of _______ for Gainesville Mayor?
What percentage of the vote will each candidate for Mayor receive?
Gainesville District 4 Race
Using all the information available to you, who do you predict will win the campaign for the District 4 Gainesville City Commission Race?
At this time, how confident are you in your prediction of ________ for Gainesville City Commission District 4?
What percentage of the vote will each candidate for Mayor receive?
Movement from Jan Panel
This panel does not differ materially from the January panel, except in two areas.
- The movement is in the confidence, not the percentages. While the predicted mean predicted percentage totals did not vary materially, the confidence expressed in the predictions increased slightly. In the predictions surrounding the Mayor, predictions migrated from ‘slightly confident’ to ‘moderately confident.’
- 100% of the panel is now in agreement that Hayes-Santos is the predicted winner in District 4.
Freeform Comments (Optional)
- “Ed’s coalition is fragmented and unable to agree on an overall strategic vision to rebuild it, expand it, or replace it. His personal problems are becoming too repugnant for most crossover voters and his “playing the race card” while not “playing the race card” is too political for crossover blacks, and the narrative of his immorality (especially from the dais) is making a last minute push (volunteers and donors) difficult for people who do not want to associate with his behavior (basically, he alienated his base in the last days of meaningful campaigning, which is why I dramatically lowered his percentages from last time).”
- “With the Democratic presidential race remaining close and a good chunk of the Gainesville electorate already voting, Poe should be able to pull off a win, but it will be much closer than it should be. Campaign mistakes are happening on both sides, so it will be interesting to see if/how these will affect the outcome. “
- “Adrian will win in a land-slide victory. The Mayor’s race will be interesting and will only be close if Poe supporters are apathetic and think that he has this in the bag. Unfortunately, the Presidential primary will have a lot to do with this as well. If either the Democrat or the Republican primaries are already largely decided by then, it will have a negative result for the candidate that is largely supported by those registered in that party. Super Tuesday could be Super bad for the local elections. Right now, Braddy supporters need to pull for Clinton to sweep super Tuesday and Poe supporters need to pull for their Trump card by having Trump sweep the super Tuesday states causing many of the other candidates to finally concede no possible path to victory. Braddy has done a respectable job and has some big accomplishments during his term but the numbers are going to be hard for him to overcome if all voters turnout factors are equal.”
- “Candidate negatives. D party.”
- “I don’t think anyone knows or cares about the district race. The mayors race is a complete cluster. The challenger should win easily based on party registration in Gvl, but is running the worst campaign since, well, since Jeb Bush’s:). However, the mayor is also running a completely inept campaign. He started 6 months too late in announcing and raising money, then announced at year end meaning it was almost impossible to raise much money due to Thanksgiving, Xmas and New Years when even political people are pre-occupied. Then McAdams happend. Then Hooker-gate happened. Despite this, he still has a fighting chance if Hillary puts away the Dem nomination and Dem turunout plummets on 3/15. The mayor has actually done a good job as mayor despite having a personal life worthy of a reality show. Those who follow Gvl politics know this. They also know Lauren screwed the pooch on the Biomass deal and the mayor has tried to fight that on behalf of the taxpayers. The bottom line however, is that this is a Democratic town and the conditions which were in place to allow the challenger to upset an incumbent mayor in 2013 are no longer in place and so the current mayor is likely to be upset himself at the outcome of this race.”
- “While I believe Lauren Poe and his team are running an awful campaign with bad strategy, it would appear the math is in their favor.”