Poe and Hayes-Santos Early Favorites to Win
edit: 1/12/2014 – An astute observer of the data was critical of how the results of the panel were presented. The criticism is the use of decimal places to describe some the data implies a certainty. I consider this a valid criticism. The manner in which the results are presented are now rounded to the nearest whole number. The mean and standard deviations are rounded to the hundredths. Unfortunately, there is a bug in the graphing software that will not present ‘.0’ Thank you for the constructive criticism.
Monday January 11 – Gainesville, FL — Meer Research in an effort to better understand the local political climate conducted on online panel of local political experts regarding the upcoming City of Gainesville elections.
In a panel conducted January 7 – January 8th, political insiders agree that Lauren Poe and Adrian Hayes-Santos begin the Gainesville City campaigns as early, heavy favorites. 67% of the panel predicts a victory for Lauren Poe for Gainesville Mayor, and 87% predicts a victory for Adrian Hayes-Santos for Gainesville District 4.
The panel predicts Lauren Poe will garner just over the 50% required to avoid a run-off with a predicted vote percentage of 51%. District 4 is not predicted to be as close with Adrian Hayes-Santos predicted to garner 59% of the vote.
The panel participants are more confident in their predictions for District 4 with 60% of participants either ‘very’ or ‘extremely’ confident in their projections compared to 20% either ‘not at all’ or ‘slightly’ confident.
This contrasts with their tempered confidence in their picks for Mayor. 40% are ‘slightly’ confident compared to 40% who are ‘very’ or ‘extremely’ confident. 20% of the panelists are only ‘moderately’ confident in their prediction.
Political Insiders participating: Mason Alley, Roger Austin, Rick Bryant, Katy Burnett, Dean Cheshire, Tony Domenech, Garrett Garner-Wells, Brandon Kutner, Jeanna Mastrodicasa, Alex Patton, Dallas Rawlins, Remzey Samarrai, Helen Strain, Matt Surrency, and Harvey Ward.
Political composition of this panel: 8 Democrats, 7 Republicans
About the Panel
Panel members are provided anonymity for their answers via Meer Research’s online panel software. Meer can observe if the participant completes the survey and participant’s names are released with each panel.
The Alachua Political Insiders panel is a non-probability panel with no statistical significance; however, panelists are recruited for their intimate knowledge of local politics.
Meer Research will continue to add to the Alachua County Political Insider Panel in order to create a diverse panel of political experts willing to share their opinions.
Participation in the Political Insider panel is by invitation only. If you would like to nominate someone as a political insider, please email: MeerResearch@MeerResearch.com.
Gainesville Mayor Race
Using all the information available to you, who do you predict will win the campaign for the Mayor of Gainesville?
At this time, how confident are you in your prediction of _______ for Gainesville Mayor?
What percentage of the vote will each candidate for Mayor receive?
Gainesville District 4 Race
Using all the information available to you, who do you predict will win the campaign for the District 4 Gainesville City Commission Race?
At this time, how confident are you in your prediction of ________ for Gainesville City Commission District 4?
What percentage of the vote will each candidate for District 4 receive?
Free-form Optional Comments
“Re Dist 4, I have no clue, but Adrian is backed by the usual suspects and ran last year and likely has the edge. Konish is a long time gadfly and likely has a chance. Re Mayoral race, I personally support Braddy but feel Poe has positioned himself better, raised more money, has a better organized and funded campaign at this time and that the mayor is relying on the same conditions that got him elected the first time to prevail again. I think conditions have changed and that the mayor may not have realized that and does not have much time left to adjust.”
“Not at all sure how this thing with former FOP President will play into the election.”
“The Poe/Braddy campaign will depend on presidential primary turnout and honestly, that is up in the air at the moment. While the numbers favor Poe, there is a lot of room for an upset.”